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Increase in economic efficiency of irrigated lands in Kazakhstan

  1. Bekbenbetova, Ph.D, Associated Professor
  2. Turebekova, Ph.D, Associated Professor
  3. Rakhmetulina, PhD, Associate Professor
  4. Gumilyev Eurasian National University, Kazakhstan

Classification Cod: Q 15 – Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation

 

Abstract

In the article the theoretical bases of formation and introduction into circulation of intercropping discusses. Productivity of land is operably linked to water consumption. An intercropping is one of the possible ways of rational use of water resources and improving productivity of irrigated agriculture. 

Key words: water resources, irrigated land, crops, moisture content, buffer plants, fodder production, environmental problem.

 

Introduction

According to the data of UN, the shortage of fresh water in 2000, including agricultural and industrial needs, is estimated 230 billion cubic meters per year. It could rise to 1.3-2.0 trillion cubic meters per year by 2025 year. Under these conditions, the problem of water saving by all means through a widespread introduction of water saving technologies and water management emerge. Problem of rational water using stands particularly acute in world agriculture, where over 70% of fresh water is consumed [1].

Kazakhstan is included the countries where irrigated farming in agricultural production plays a leading role. Climatic conditions of the southern region of Kazakhstan favorable to the cultivation of crops such as vegetables, sugar beets, melons, corn, grain, hard wheat. But about half of the irrigated land out of agricultural use due to lack of adequate funding for the operation of irrigation systems. There is work on the reconstruction of irrigation systems, land reclamation, improvement of their water supply were not conducted over the past two decades. At the same time in these regions with the development of livestock and need to create a more solid food base, which imposes additional problems on irrigated land as natural hayfields generally reached their limits.

The role and importance of irrigated agriculture and water management in the agricultural sector are well known. Highly profitable crops as cotton, sugar beet, rice, vegetables, etc. is cultivated on namely irrigated lands. The productivity of cereals under irrigation is 2-3 times higher than on bogar land. In the 90s years of the last century the irrigated lands accounted for almost 6% of the cultivated area in the country, it was more than 2.3 million hectares. There was about a third of the entire crop production were produced, while in the southern regions it was more than two-thirds [2]. According to statistics the area of ​​irrigated land in 2014 in the country is less than 1.5 million hectares, there was produced just 5.3% of the gross crop production. The irrigated area decreased to 2.1 million hectares, their productivity also reduced. The loss of more than 1 million hectares of irrigated land led to shortage of agricultural production of the country an estimated in the amount of more than 4.7 billion US dollars [3].

An important indicator of the irrigated land use is the productivity of irrigation water, ie, crop yield per cubic meter of water supply. Thus, the productivity of one cubic meter of water in developed countries is 2.5-6.0 kg of products, in Kazakhstan it does not exceed 0.8 kg. Reasons are deterioration of the technical conditions of irrigation and drainage systems, soil degradation process, as well as low level of implementation of new irrigation technologies. That impact on the productivity of irrigated area [4].

The scale of industry and agriculture development recently requires ever increasing intense involvement of water in economic circulation. Deterioration of water quality, violation of the hydrological, biological and salt regimes is observed at the considerable part of country’s territory. Therefore improvement of the water resources management as well as introduction of the effective water-saving technologies in water sector of the country is needed.

Scientific aspects of the complex regulation of plant life factors problems solving and creation on this basis a mathematical model of harvest production processes, taking into account water management system are considered in the works by Russian scientists: Shumakov B.B. (1978) [5], Galyamin E.P., Mimotin N.N., Siptits S.O. (1978) [6]. Issues of irrigation regime optimization using the simulation model have been investigated by Russian scientists Dobrachev J.P., Kuznetsova N.A., Lobachyov S.B., Burdyugov V.G. (1988) [7], Shatilyov I.S. (1975) [8], Tsymbalenko I.N. (1993) [9] and others in the 70-90-ies of the last century. The study of this problem involved foreign scientists Bula R.J. (1975) [10], Colbi W.Y., Mack Dreke, Hisatomo Ochara, Horihito Voshida (1966) [11].

The farming practice experiences interruption of crops vegetation with mowing them to forage. Though such measures require further study and can’t be used in long-term planning. The current practice of agriculture is not fully reveals the issues of water management, without prejudice to an increase in crop productivity, along with the stabilization of the environmental situation of natural and economic systems.

Therefore, the establishment of a rational structure of crop rotation with the introduction of buffer crops and the development of organizational measures to transfer the buffer crop production in livestock products determine the relevance of the research.

The purpose of the study is to establish prerequisites for yield simulation of crops for the rational use of water resources through the introduction buffer crops into circulation.

Methodology
The methodological basis of the study served as a systemic approach. In the study scientific methods and techniques are applied: scientific abstraction, modeling, classification, comparison. Literary sources, legislation and legal documents were studied on the basis of abstract and logical method to perform this study.

Results

Currently agriculture needs to reach a new technological level appropriate for achieving the scientific and technological progress. In these conditions detrimental effect on the yield of the adverse weather conditions is especially noticeable. Hence, in the specific, sometimes complex environment of agriculture, it is necessary to find the most effective methods and techniques to achieve higher yields and greater sustainability in husbandry.

The main limiting factors in dry land agriculture are insufficient and unstable moisture supply to crops in the most critical phase of their development. The first factor primarily affects the quality and stability of the yield, as well as a useful effect of other activities (agricultural machinery, fertilizer, plant selection). In other words, instability agriculture is especially generated by unsteadiness of plants.

According to UNESCO data, in the twentieth century water withdrawals for all needs among world have increased in six time as well as irrevocable consumption during the same period have grew in five times [12, p.22].

The water availability per person in Kazakhstan is 37.0 thousand M3 / km2 and 6.6 thousand M3 per year [13]. It is one of the last places among the CIS countries on water availability.

The volume of water resources in Kazakhstan is estimated about 100 km3, 56% (56.6 km3) of them is formed within the country, while the remaining 44% (43.9 km3) comes from the neighboring territories: China - 18.9 km3; Uzbekistan - 14.6 km3; Kyrgyzstan - 3.0 km3; Russia - 7.5 km3. In this case, of the total water it remains possible to use 42% or 42.6 km3. The remaining 42.4 km3 flows into neighboring territory and 15.5 km3 is lost to seepage and evaporation [14].

Annually, based on yearly water availability, ecological and sanitary condition of water objects limits of water use are formed. Limit of water consumption by industries was 26.7 km3 in 2012, 18.4 km3 of which is actually used (69%). The main water consumer is agriculture. There are more than 60% of the specified volume of water is consumed, that is more than 10.2 km3 [4, p.62].

Considering the impact of climate change on crop irrigation regime based on experimental studies of a number years, adopted calculated water availability in the range of 85 - 90%, which implies that 10 - 15% of the irrigation network is idle. Given the current trend in the construction of pressure systems and closed pipeline that maximize resource conservation, the use of a percentage of a costly and increase the payback period of investment is ineffective [15].

Due to insufficient irrigation water volume and low coefficient of its use the process of formation of high-quality crops are violated, that ultimately leads to a decrease in plants productivity.

The process of grain formation, for instance wheat, consists in three stages: forming, filling and ripening. Plant’s seeds, as a biological objects, during swelling and germination needs humidity because water determines the structural, functional and biological bases of macromolecules, as well as intensity and direction of metabolism. Therefore, ultimate productivity of plant (yield) depends on its qualitative and quantitative formation of vegetative mass.

Moreover plants intensively consume moisture and nutrients in the phases of tillering and booting. The average daily water consumption in period of from germination since tillering is about 17 m³/ha. During the phase of plant output in the tube it increases by almost 2 times, in the phase of earing in 4 times, at the stage of grain’s filling daily water consumption rises in 3 time [16].

Process of plant’s maturation consists of two phases of grain development: wax and full ripeness. The maximum water consumption period happens to phases of earing and early grain filling. For cereals for instance, during this period the process of the embryo differentiation is going, the growth cone plumule is finally determined, the appropriate number of embryonic leaves and germ primary roots lays down as well as the formation of shields completes. In plant’s caryopsis dewatering process starts, although tissue humidity is kept at 70-75%, and the lack of moisture in the soil during this time can lead to the formation of puny grains or its broken wind (empty ears of wheat) [17, p. 22].

Dependence of irrigation regime on climate change significantly affect crop yields and in terms of its compliance with plant growth and growth factors. Biological basis of yield is formed at the beginning of the growing season, when water availability is high enough. Later, however, when the nonobservance of plant’s irrigation regime (reduction of irrigation water level) crop yields sharply reduces, the quality indicators of agricultural products are deteriorates. Moreover, it is seen when the productivity inherent in the genetic memory of the plant is greater, the more catastrophically longer infringement of irrigation regime affects on final yields [17, p. 24].

Therefore, most of the farms redress dry conditions (mismatch of water availability on plant growth factors) by further water intake from water sources, ignoring the consequences of such actions on the ecology of rivers and their lower reaches. The result was the disappearance of the lakes Akkol, Aschikol, on the verge of drying is lake Bilikol.

In these circumstances, in order to improve the utilization of water resources and to increase the return of irrigated land a buffer crops must be implemented. Buffer plants reduce the total intake water from irrigation systems at the same time not reducing the amount of irrigation norm for other crops [5, с.5].

Consequently, buffer plants are included crops, which product can be used in several stages of plant’s vegetation. For example, the final product of corn is the grain, and intermediate product is silage. Next example, the wheat, their end product is the grain, and intermediate - green fodder.

Vegetation period of called crops can be interrupted in case of shortage of irrigation water, and the obtained intermediate products can used as feed in livestock.
Total reduced harvest from all over the irrigated farming system, or can be presented in the form of [17, p.51] (1):

                                 (1)

Where, - these values yields of crops with a final product;

       - these values crop yields two further types of products (buffer crops).

In general, this equation can be written as:

                                                               (2)

Where, part of the crop of buffer crops in accordance with our research can be converted into livestock products:

                                                                                  (3)

Where, - total harvest of agricultural-buffer cultures used as a crop production;

- total livestock products obtained by feeding the intermediate product of buffer crops.

If the solution of economic problems is its corresponding elements may be changed in compliance with the conditions:

if

if  

In this case, the conditions of water use regulation are created, as the total harvest of irrigated area is the value functionally related to the level of water consumption:

                                                                                                  (4)

где,   x- total water consumption;

         V - irrigated area;

         У- crop yields.

The equation the interrelation of total water consumption and the yield of crops being generally true, does not account the dynamics of water consumption in phases of development of plants, and can’t be applied, as well as other one-term equation, proposed recently. The proposed model of crops water regime management, taking into account the needs of plants in irrigation water on the main phases of its development more fully meet:

                                       (5)    

Where,   y- crop yields;

x- total water consumption;

- the factor of formation of vegetative organs of the plant a certain crop;

- Quantitative measure of the formation of vegetative mass;

- The factor of formation of generative organs of plants;

- Quantitative index of growth of the generative organs of plants;

- The factor of formation of the final product;

         - Quantitative measure of the formation of the final product.

This equation determines an interconnection the cost of water with productivity of crops regarding the final product. For buffer crops vegetation may be terminated in condition shortage of irrigation water, thus the above equation becomes:

                                                                       (6)

Where, - crop production intermediate buffer crops.

If we consider the productivity of crops as the set of random variables, which are the final point of the curve y=f(x) (figure 1) an infinite set of curves yi=f(xi), it is obvious that the behavioral model of plant is a branching process, which is formed depending on the factors influencing it during its development. The probability of getting into the points B11 and B111 is possible only if a mandatory passage behavioral model plant through the point , etc.

Considering the set of processes for Figure 1 and equation (5), it can be concluded that the change in plant vegetation model is result the effect of follow factors: dietary exposure, heat, water, air and other modes. Exposure occurs continuously and differentially in stages of plant development.

                                                                                          

 y                                                                            Y1=F(x)  

                                                                                               Y2

                                                                                                                                                        Y3

                                                                                                                                                                       

                                                                                                                                  Y11                                                                

                                                                                                               Y21

                                                                                                                                                                           Y31

                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                               Y12

                            А1                                                  B21                        Y2

                                                           B2II                                    Y13

                               А2                                                                         Y23

                                                                                                                       

0                                                                                                                                                                                    Х

Figure 1 The behavioral model of the crop depending on changes in factors (compiled by the authors)

Thus, the increase in resource measures by introducing intermediate crops (buffered plants) allows to expand the fodder base of livestock farms in the irrigated areas, without prejudice to the crop and additional consumption of irrigation water, as well as to increase the stability of the yield of major crops rotation in drought.

Also, the introduction of intercropping in the system of land use will allow in dry years to provide the planned water use of crops with a final product by those cultures, which products can be used as animal feed, that is, to produce animal products - meat, milk, and others.

It should be noted that the lack of water is already characteristic of the basins of the Aral Sea, Lake Balkhash, river Ural as well as basin of stagnant rivers Shu, Talas, Asa, Sarysu, Turgai, Nura. As a result of the reduction of surface runoff in the lower reaches of called rivers the intense drying of territory occurs, it is lead to salinity and degradation of wetlands. The disappearance of the natural sources of irrigation, reducing the productivity of grasslands and pastures in dehydrated floodplains and deltas of rivers has led to increased grazing pressure on the adjacent desert areas. As a result of overgrazing and overloading grazing cattle the productivity of pasture declined. Limitation of water resources for the benefit of the economies already seriously affected the destruction of the centuries-old natural complexes in the lower reaches of the Syr Darya, Ili, Shu, Talas, Asa, and other waterways [13].

Weak implementation of improved farming techniques, poor technical condition of irrigation and water distribution systems, equipment wear and tear, lack of water-saving technologies has eventually led to deterioration of water quality, salinization of irrigated areas, the rapid desertification processes. According to leading research institutes, now there is the impact of global climate change on river flow, especially to lowland rivers flow in the Central and Western Kazakhstan.

Note that, single methodology for the prediction of water resources and elements of hydro meteorological regime forward with a lead time of 1-5 years or more in Kazakhstan and in the world is absent. In assessing the probable resources of river runoff of Kazakhstan should take into account the objective existence of two types of uncertainties. The first uncertainty associated with climate variability caused by forming in the basin of river flow, having a probabilistic nature. The second one is due to economic activity in the basins of neighboring countries, the extent of which can’t be clearly predicted.

Given the high degree of vulnerability of the environment and industries of Kazakhstan's economy to possible changes in river flow the strategy for sustainable water supply in the country should be focused on the adverse combination of two destabilizing factors: change in local runoff caused by climate (10-20%) and anthropogenic reduction of trans boundary flow (up to 50% ). Under unfavorable condition of climate and hydrological trans boundary threats the decrease in resources of river flow as a whole in Kazakhstan in 2020 to 81.6 km3 / year, including cross-border - up to 33.2 km3 / year, local - to 48.3 km3 / year; 2030 - 72.4, respectively; 22.2 and 50.2 km3 / year is reality in perspective. The most dependent on the cross-border flow are the follow natural-economic systems: Aral-Syrdariya (89%), Zhaiyk Caspian (79%), Shu-Talas (76%) [18].

Therefore, today it is necessary to look for alternative ways to solve this problem, including inter-basin transfer of water within the country and from abroad.

 

Conclusion

In the past, the use of natural resources was mainly aimed at obtaining short-term economic effects, which led to serious ecological disasters and continue to affect modern economic growth.

Condition of irrigated agriculture in recent years is characterized by significant changes: worsening technical level of reclamation facilities, reducing of land productivity, loss of large areas of irrigated land from turnover. The issues of effective water resources use must be urgently addressed, because irrational use has led to the degradation of natural systems, salinization of land, disruption of the ecological balance in the lower reaches of rivers.

Consequently, there is a need to implement measures to increase efficiency of water use and water consumption in order to minimize specific water use in all sectors of the economy, especially in irrigated agriculture. In the conditions of increasing scarcity of water resources in the vegetative period issues of rational and efficient use of irrigated land should be the priority of water policy.

References            

  1. Water in a Changing World (2009, March). 5th World Water Forum. Istanbul,

http://rodon.org/polit-090402100848

  1. Kazakhstan in 1990. (1991). Statistical Yearbook. Казахстана в 1990 год. State Committee of the Kazakh SSR on Statistics and Analysis, Alma-Ata.
  2. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries in the Republic of Kazakhstan (2015). Statistical Yearbook. Astana, Statistics Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
  3. Analysis of vegetal sector of Kazakhstan (2014). Almaty, Analytical service of the Rating Agency RFCA.
  4. Shumakov, B.B. & Galyamin, E.N. (1978). Principles and ways to address the complex regulatory factors of plant life. In The issue of management the plant life factors. (5-18). Moscow, Collection of scientific papers of All-Russian Research Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Land Reclamation by A.N. Kostyakov.
  5. Galyamin, EP, N.N., Mimotin, N.N., Siptits, S.O. (1978) Mathematical modeling of formation of the crop. In The issue of management the plant life factors. (51-64). Moscow, Collection of scientific papers of All-Russian Research Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Land Reclamation by A.N. Kostyakov
  6. Dobrachev, J.P., Kuznetsova, N.A., Lobachyov, S.B., Burdyugov, V.G. (1988) Optimization of irrigation schedule using simulation model. Irrigation and Water Management, №4, 46-48.
  7. Shatilyov, I.S. (1975). Programming crop yields. Moscow, Kолос.
  8. Tsymbalenko, I.N. (1993). Prediction of yields on climate resources and optimization of controllable factors for corn and alfalfa crops under Zauryalya. Thesis of study, Moscow.
  9. Bula R.J. et al. (1975) Environmental physiology, modeling and simulation of alfalfa growth. III. Micrometeorological conditions of an alfalfa canopy. Purdue Agric. Exp. Sta. Bull. №77, 15-25.
  10. Colbi. W.Y. et al. (1966). Carbohydrate reserves in orchard grass. In Proseed X International Grassland Congress(pp.151 -155). Helsinki.
  11. Dialogue in Central Asia . (2010) EU-UNDP Project (2009-2012). Almaty.

www.inform.kz/.../integrirovannoe-upravlenie-vodnymi-resursami

  1. Promoting Integrated Water Resources Management and Fostering Transboundary Water resources of Kazakhstan in the new millennium. (2013). Almaty, UNDP:http://kursak.net/1-sostoyanie-vodnyx-resursov/
  2. Indicators of the State program for accelerated industrial-innovative development of Kazakhstan for 2010-2014. (2013). Statistical Bulleten. Astana, Statistics Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
  3. Concept of transition of Kazakhstan to sustainable development for 2007-2024 yy., (2006, November 14, №216). Decree of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
  4. Khasankhanova, G.M. (1999). Crops water consumption. In Project А – 2 GЕF Participation in water saving(pp.52-68 ). Tashkent.
  5. Yurovsky, R.F., Yankelevich, R.K., Mikonovich, I.I. (2004). Biological substantiation of agricultural methods and technology of production of corn for grain and green mass in the case of Belarus. Grodno, УО “ГГАУ”.
  6. Kotlyakov, V.M., Glazer, O.B. The role of geography in the study and prevention of natural and man-made disasters on the territory of the CIS and Georgia. (2015). Moscow, Медиа-Пресс.

Increase in economic efficiency of irrigated lands in Kazakhstan

  1. Bekbenbetova, Ph.D, Associated Professor
  2. Turebekova, Ph.D, Associated Professor
  3. Rakhmetulina, PhD, Associate Professor
  4. Gumilyev Eurasian National University, Kazakhstan

Classification Cod: Q 15 – Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation

 

Abstract

In the article the theoretical bases of formation and introduction into circulation of intercropping discusses. Productivity of land is operably linked to water consumption. An intercropping is one of the possible ways of rational use of water resources and improving productivity of irrigated agriculture. 

Key words: water resources, irrigated land, crops, moisture content, buffer plants, fodder production, environmental problem.

 

Introduction

According to the data of UN, the shortage of fresh water in 2000, including agricultural and industrial needs, is estimated 230 billion cubic meters per year. It could rise to 1.3-2.0 trillion cubic meters per year by 2025 year. Under these conditions, the problem of water saving by all means through a widespread introduction of water saving technologies and water management emerge. Problem of rational water using stands particularly acute in world agriculture, where over 70% of fresh water is consumed [1].

Kazakhstan is included the countries where irrigated farming in agricultural production plays a leading role. Climatic conditions of the southern region of Kazakhstan favorable to the cultivation of crops such as vegetables, sugar beets, melons, corn, grain, hard wheat. But about half of the irrigated land out of agricultural use due to lack of adequate funding for the operation of irrigation systems. There is work on the reconstruction of irrigation systems, land reclamation, improvement of their water supply were not conducted over the past two decades. At the same time in these regions with the development of livestock and need to create a more solid food base, which imposes additional problems on irrigated land as natural hayfields generally reached their limits.

The role and importance of irrigated agriculture and water management in the agricultural sector are well known. Highly profitable crops as cotton, sugar beet, rice, vegetables, etc. is cultivated on namely irrigated lands. The productivity of cereals under irrigation is 2-3 times higher than on bogar land. In the 90s years of the last century the irrigated lands accounted for almost 6% of the cultivated area in the country, it was more than 2.3 million hectares. There was about a third of the entire crop production were produced, while in the southern regions it was more than two-thirds [2]. According to statistics the area of ​​irrigated land in 2014 in the country is less than 1.5 million hectares, there was produced just 5.3% of the gross crop production. The irrigated area decreased to 2.1 million hectares, their productivity also reduced. The loss of more than 1 million hectares of irrigated land led to shortage of agricultural production of the country an estimated in the amount of more than 4.7 billion US dollars [3].

An important indicator of the irrigated land use is the productivity of irrigation water, ie, crop yield per cubic meter of water supply. Thus, the productivity of one cubic meter of water in developed countries is 2.5-6.0 kg of products, in Kazakhstan it does not exceed 0.8 kg. Reasons are deterioration of the technical conditions of irrigation and drainage systems, soil degradation process, as well as low level of implementation of new irrigation technologies. That impact on the productivity of irrigated area [4].

The scale of industry and agriculture development recently requires ever increasing intense involvement of water in economic circulation. Deterioration of water quality, violation of the hydrological, biological and salt regimes is observed at the considerable part of country’s territory. Therefore improvement of the water resources management as well as introduction of the effective water-saving technologies in water sector of the country is needed.

Scientific aspects of the complex regulation of plant life factors problems solving and creation on this basis a mathematical model of harvest production processes, taking into account water management system are considered in the works by Russian scientists: Shumakov B.B. (1978) [5], Galyamin E.P., Mimotin N.N., Siptits S.O. (1978) [6]. Issues of irrigation regime optimization using the simulation model have been investigated by Russian scientists Dobrachev J.P., Kuznetsova N.A., Lobachyov S.B., Burdyugov V.G. (1988) [7], Shatilyov I.S. (1975) [8], Tsymbalenko I.N. (1993) [9] and others in the 70-90-ies of the last century. The study of this problem involved foreign scientists Bula R.J. (1975) [10], Colbi W.Y., Mack Dreke, Hisatomo Ochara, Horihito Voshida (1966) [11].

The farming practice experiences interruption of crops vegetation with mowing them to forage. Though such measures require further study and can’t be used in long-term planning. The current practice of agriculture is not fully reveals the issues of water management, without prejudice to an increase in crop productivity, along with the stabilization of the environmental situation of natural and economic systems.

Therefore, the establishment of a rational structure of crop rotation with the introduction of buffer crops and the development of organizational measures to transfer the buffer crop production in livestock products determine the relevance of the research.

The purpose of the study is to establish prerequisites for yield simulation of crops for the rational use of water resources through the introduction buffer crops into circulation.

Methodology
The methodological basis of the study served as a systemic approach. In the study scientific methods and techniques are applied: scientific abstraction, modeling, classification, comparison. Literary sources, legislation and legal documents were studied on the basis of abstract and logical method to perform this study.

Results

Currently agriculture needs to reach a new technological level appropriate for achieving the scientific and technological progress. In these conditions detrimental effect on the yield of the adverse weather conditions is especially noticeable. Hence, in the specific, sometimes complex environment of agriculture, it is necessary to find the most effective methods and techniques to achieve higher yields and greater sustainability in husbandry.

The main limiting factors in dry land agriculture are insufficient and unstable moisture supply to crops in the most critical phase of their development. The first factor primarily affects the quality and stability of the yield, as well as a useful effect of other activities (agricultural machinery, fertilizer, plant selection). In other words, instability agriculture is especially generated by unsteadiness of plants.

According to UNESCO data, in the twentieth century water withdrawals for all needs among world have increased in six time as well as irrevocable consumption during the same period have grew in five times [12, p.22].

The water availability per person in Kazakhstan is 37.0 thousand M3 / km2 and 6.6 thousand M3 per year [13]. It is one of the last places among the CIS countries on water availability.

The volume of water resources in Kazakhstan is estimated about 100 km3, 56% (56.6 km3) of them is formed within the country, while the remaining 44% (43.9 km3) comes from the neighboring territories: China - 18.9 km3; Uzbekistan - 14.6 km3; Kyrgyzstan - 3.0 km3; Russia - 7.5 km3. In this case, of the total water it remains possible to use 42% or 42.6 km3. The remaining 42.4 km3 flows into neighboring territory and 15.5 km3 is lost to seepage and evaporation [14].

Annually, based on yearly water availability, ecological and sanitary condition of water objects limits of water use are formed. Limit of water consumption by industries was 26.7 km3 in 2012, 18.4 km3 of which is actually used (69%). The main water consumer is agriculture. There are more than 60% of the specified volume of water is consumed, that is more than 10.2 km3 [4, p.62].

Considering the impact of climate change on crop irrigation regime based on experimental studies of a number years, adopted calculated water availability in the range of 85 - 90%, which implies that 10 - 15% of the irrigation network is idle. Given the current trend in the construction of pressure systems and closed pipeline that maximize resource conservation, the use of a percentage of a costly and increase the payback period of investment is ineffective [15].

Due to insufficient irrigation water volume and low coefficient of its use the process of formation of high-quality crops are violated, that ultimately leads to a decrease in plants productivity.

The process of grain formation, for instance wheat, consists in three stages: forming, filling and ripening. Plant’s seeds, as a biological objects, during swelling and germination needs humidity because water determines the structural, functional and biological bases of macromolecules, as well as intensity and direction of metabolism. Therefore, ultimate productivity of plant (yield) depends on its qualitative and quantitative formation of vegetative mass.

Moreover plants intensively consume moisture and nutrients in the phases of tillering and booting. The average daily water consumption in period of from germination since tillering is about 17 m³/ha. During the phase of plant output in the tube it increases by almost 2 times, in the phase of earing in 4 times, at the stage of grain’s filling daily water consumption rises in 3 time [16].

Process of plant’s maturation consists of two phases of grain development: wax and full ripeness. The maximum water consumption period happens to phases of earing and early grain filling. For cereals for instance, during this period the process of the embryo differentiation is going, the growth cone plumule is finally determined, the appropriate number of embryonic leaves and germ primary roots lays down as well as the formation of shields completes. In plant’s caryopsis dewatering process starts, although tissue humidity is kept at 70-75%, and the lack of moisture in the soil during this time can lead to the formation of puny grains or its broken wind (empty ears of wheat) [17, p. 22].

Dependence of irrigation regime on climate change significantly affect crop yields and in terms of its compliance with plant growth and growth factors. Biological basis of yield is formed at the beginning of the growing season, when water availability is high enough. Later, however, when the nonobservance of plant’s irrigation regime (reduction of irrigation water level) crop yields sharply reduces, the quality indicators of agricultural products are deteriorates. Moreover, it is seen when the productivity inherent in the genetic memory of the plant is greater, the more catastrophically longer infringement of irrigation regime affects on final yields [17, p. 24].

Therefore, most of the farms redress dry conditions (mismatch of water availability on plant growth factors) by further water intake from water sources, ignoring the consequences of such actions on the ecology of rivers and their lower reaches. The result was the disappearance of the lakes Akkol, Aschikol, on the verge of drying is lake Bilikol.

In these circumstances, in order to improve the utilization of water resources and to increase the return of irrigated land a buffer crops must be implemented. Buffer plants reduce the total intake water from irrigation systems at the same time not reducing the amount of irrigation norm for other crops [5, с.5].

Consequently, buffer plants are included crops, which product can be used in several stages of plant’s vegetation. For example, the final product of corn is the grain, and intermediate product is silage. Next example, the wheat, their end product is the grain, and intermediate - green fodder.

Vegetation period of called crops can be interrupted in case of shortage of irrigation water, and the obtained intermediate products can used as feed in livestock.
Total reduced harvest from all over the irrigated farming system, or can be presented in the form of [17, p.51] (1):

                                 (1)

Where, - these values yields of crops with a final product;

       - these values crop yields two further types of products (buffer crops).

In general, this equation can be written as:

                                                               (2)

Where, part of the crop of buffer crops in accordance with our research can be converted into livestock products:

                                                                                  (3)

Where, - total harvest of agricultural-buffer cultures used as a crop production;

- total livestock products obtained by feeding the intermediate product of buffer crops.

If the solution of economic problems is its corresponding elements may be changed in compliance with the conditions:

if

if  

In this case, the conditions of water use regulation are created, as the total harvest of irrigated area is the value functionally related to the level of water consumption:

                                                                                                  (4)

где,   x- total water consumption;

         V - irrigated area;

         У- crop yields.

The equation the interrelation of total water consumption and the yield of crops being generally true, does not account the dynamics of water consumption in phases of development of plants, and can’t be applied, as well as other one-term equation, proposed recently. The proposed model of crops water regime management, taking into account the needs of plants in irrigation water on the main phases of its development more fully meet:

                                       (5)    

Where,   y- crop yields;

x- total water consumption;

- the factor of formation of vegetative organs of the plant a certain crop;

- Quantitative measure of the formation of vegetative mass;

- The factor of formation of generative organs of plants;

- Quantitative index of growth of the generative organs of plants;

- The factor of formation of the final product;

         - Quantitative measure of the formation of the final product.

This equation determines an interconnection the cost of water with productivity of crops regarding the final product. For buffer crops vegetation may be terminated in condition shortage of irrigation water, thus the above equation becomes:

                                                                       (6)

Where, - crop production intermediate buffer crops.

If we consider the productivity of crops as the set of random variables, which are the final point of the curve y=f(x) (figure 1) an infinite set of curves yi=f(xi), it is obvious that the behavioral model of plant is a branching process, which is formed depending on the factors influencing it during its development. The probability of getting into the points B11 and B111 is possible only if a mandatory passage behavioral model plant through the point , etc.

Considering the set of processes for Figure 1 and equation (5), it can be concluded that the change in plant vegetation model is result the effect of follow factors: dietary exposure, heat, water, air and other modes. Exposure occurs continuously and differentially in stages of plant development.

                                                                                          

 y                                                                            Y1=F(x)  

                                                                                               Y2

                                                                                                                                                        Y3

                                                                                                                                                                       

                                                                                                                                  Y11                                                                

                                                                                                               Y21

                                                                                                                                                                           Y31

                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                               Y12

                            А1                                                  B21                        Y2

                                                           B2II                                    Y13

                               А2                                                                         Y23

                                                                                                                       

0                                                                                                                                                                                    Х

Figure 1 The behavioral model of the crop depending on changes in factors (compiled by the authors)

Thus, the increase in resource measures by introducing intermediate crops (buffered plants) allows to expand the fodder base of livestock farms in the irrigated areas, without prejudice to the crop and additional consumption of irrigation water, as well as to increase the stability of the yield of major crops rotation in drought.

Also, the introduction of intercropping in the system of land use will allow in dry years to provide the planned water use of crops with a final product by those cultures, which products can be used as animal feed, that is, to produce animal products - meat, milk, and others.

It should be noted that the lack of water is already characteristic of the basins of the Aral Sea, Lake Balkhash, river Ural as well as basin of stagnant rivers Shu, Talas, Asa, Sarysu, Turgai, Nura. As a result of the reduction of surface runoff in the lower reaches of called rivers the intense drying of territory occurs, it is lead to salinity and degradation of wetlands. The disappearance of the natural sources of irrigation, reducing the productivity of grasslands and pastures in dehydrated floodplains and deltas of rivers has led to increased grazing pressure on the adjacent desert areas. As a result of overgrazing and overloading grazing cattle the productivity of pasture declined. Limitation of water resources for the benefit of the economies already seriously affected the destruction of the centuries-old natural complexes in the lower reaches of the Syr Darya, Ili, Shu, Talas, Asa, and other waterways [13].

Weak implementation of improved farming techniques, poor technical condition of irrigation and water distribution systems, equipment wear and tear, lack of water-saving technologies has eventually led to deterioration of water quality, salinization of irrigated areas, the rapid desertification processes. According to leading research institutes, now there is the impact of global climate change on river flow, especially to lowland rivers flow in the Central and Western Kazakhstan.

Note that, single methodology for the prediction of water resources and elements of hydro meteorological regime forward with a lead time of 1-5 years or more in Kazakhstan and in the world is absent. In assessing the probable resources of river runoff of Kazakhstan should take into account the objective existence of two types of uncertainties. The first uncertainty associated with climate variability caused by forming in the basin of river flow, having a probabilistic nature. The second one is due to economic activity in the basins of neighboring countries, the extent of which can’t be clearly predicted.

Given the high degree of vulnerability of the environment and industries of Kazakhstan's economy to possible changes in river flow the strategy for sustainable water supply in the country should be focused on the adverse combination of two destabilizing factors: change in local runoff caused by climate (10-20%) and anthropogenic reduction of trans boundary flow (up to 50% ). Under unfavorable condition of climate and hydrological trans boundary threats the decrease in resources of river flow as a whole in Kazakhstan in 2020 to 81.6 km3 / year, including cross-border - up to 33.2 km3 / year, local - to 48.3 km3 / year; 2030 - 72.4, respectively; 22.2 and 50.2 km3 / year is reality in perspective. The most dependent on the cross-border flow are the follow natural-economic systems: Aral-Syrdariya (89%), Zhaiyk Caspian (79%), Shu-Talas (76%) [18].

Therefore, today it is necessary to look for alternative ways to solve this problem, including inter-basin transfer of water within the country and from abroad.

 

Conclusion

In the past, the use of natural resources was mainly aimed at obtaining short-term economic effects, which led to serious ecological disasters and continue to affect modern economic growth.

Condition of irrigated agriculture in recent years is characterized by significant changes: worsening technical level of reclamation facilities, reducing of land productivity, loss of large areas of irrigated land from turnover. The issues of effective water resources use must be urgently addressed, because irrational use has led to the degradation of natural systems, salinization of land, disruption of the ecological balance in the lower reaches of rivers.

Consequently, there is a need to implement measures to increase efficiency of water use and water consumption in order to minimize specific water use in all sectors of the economy, especially in irrigated agriculture. In the conditions of increasing scarcity of water resources in the vegetative period issues of rational and efficient use of irrigated land should be the priority of water policy.

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